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I SMHI:s regleringsbrev \u00e4r m\u00e5let minst 85 procents tr\u00e4ffs\u00e4kerhet under ett \u00e5r – en niv\u00e5 man aldrig uppn\u00e5tt. F\u00f6rra \u00e5ret l\u00e5g andelen korrekta prognoser f\u00f6r en dag fram\u00e5t p\u00e5 82,5 procent och f\u00f6r fem dagar fram\u00e5t p\u00e5 69,3 procent.<\/p>\n

SMHI har blivit avsev\u00e4rt s\u00e4mre n\u00e4r det g\u00e4ller vissa samh\u00e4llsvarningar. Meteorologerna missade exempelvis var tredje kulingvarning f\u00f6rra \u00e5ret, 33 procent, och gav dessutom falska larm vid 38 procent av alla fall. \u00c5r 2008 l\u00e5g siffrorna p\u00e5 22 procent, respektive 20 procent, skriver DN.<\/p>\n

Att g\u00f6ra v\u00e4derprognoser \u00e4r nog bland det sv\u00e5raste man kan ge sig in p\u00e5. Resultatet beror bland annat p\u00e5 vilka matematiska prognosmodeller man v\u00e4ljer. D\u00e4r finns ingen absolut sanning, s\u00e5 fingertoppsk\u00e4nsla n\u00e4r sammanv\u00e4gningen g\u00f6rs \u00e4r n\u00f6dv\u00e4ndig. Det \u00e4r nog d\u00e4r problemet ligger.<\/p>\n

M\u00e5nga svenskar brukar titta p\u00e5 prognoserna fr\u00e5n norska YR, som \u00e4ven anlitas av SvD. SMHI ska nu konsultera sina norska och brittiska kollegor.<\/p>\n

Andra bloggar om: V\u00e4der<\/a>, V\u00e4derprognoser<\/a>, SMHI<\/a>, Regeringen<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"